Thursday, December 4, 2014

BEZOS: I Have Spent Billions Of Dollars On Failed Bets — But I'll Never Do This

BEZOS: I Have Spent Billions Of Dollars On Failed Bets — But I'll Never Do This

BEZOS: I Have Spent Billions Of Dollars On Failed Bets — But I'll Never Do This

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos explains the importance of "bold bets" with Henry Blodget at Business Insider's Ignition 2014. He says they've actually helped cover billions of dollars in failures.

Edited by Devan Joseph. Special thanks to Justin Gmoser and Sam Rega.

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BEZOS: I Have Spent Billions Of Dollars On Failed Bets — But I'll Never Do This

BEZOS: I Have Spent Billions Of Dollars On Failed Bets — But I'll Never Do This

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos explains the importance of "bold bets" with Henry Blodget at Business Insider's Ignition 2014. He says they've actually helped cover billions of dollars in failures.

Edited by Devan Joseph. Special thanks to Justin Gmoser and Sam Rega.

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The ECB Just Held Rates

The ECB Just Held Rates

Draghi

The ECB held its main interest rates completely unchanged this month.

Though it looks like a long shot that new policies will be revealed, investors and analysts will be hanging on to Mario Draghi's every word during the press conference at 1.30 p.m. GMT.

This month, ECB-watchers reckon Draghi is likely to be dovish, but they don't expect any solid new announcements on monetary policy.

A lot of analysts are expecting that the ECB will announce a bigger programme of asset purchases in the first few months of next year. That's one way they could try to boost economic conditions, either by buying government bonds (usually known as QE) or a wider range of corporate bonds. 

Draghi has committed to boosting the amount of assets the ECB owns to around €3 trillion. The current level is about €1 trillion shy of that, so they'd need to seriously up their game to get there. 

Click here to update this page as the decisions come out.

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NASA's Space Capsule Launch Delayed Due To Wind, Stray Boat

NASA's Space Capsule Launch Delayed Due To Wind, Stray Boat

More Sun with Rocket7

NASA's Orion space capsule launch scheduled for Thursday morning has been delayed twice, first because of a stray boat and now due to unfavourable wind conditions.

Officials reported a ground wind violation at 7:14 a.m. ET, three minutes before liftoff time. 

"While the wind conditions remain red, the launch team has moved Orion back to electrical power from the ground so it can save its batteries for flight," NASA said on its blog

The launch team is now working on options for setting a new launch time, the space agency said. 

The spacecraft and rocket were originally set for liftoff at 7:05 a.m. ET, but was held off due to a stray boat that enetered a prohibited zone in the Atlantic. Officials said the rocket could not get the all clear until the boat left the restricted area and no longer posed a hazard. 

 

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'WE CAN'T BREATHE': Here Are New York Newspapers This Morning

'WE CAN'T BREATHE': Here Are New York Newspapers This Morning

Furious protests broke out in New York City on Wednesday night after a grand jury failed to indict a white police officer who choked a black man to death in July.

New York Police Department Officer Daniel Pantaleo told the jury that he meant no harm to Eric Garner and wasn't using a chokehold — a move that's been banned by the police department — when he was subduing Garner for resisting arrest.

A video of the encounter shows Garner shouting that he can't breathe before he goes limp. Pantaleo was trying to arrest him for illegally selling cigarettes, according to The New York Times.

The grand jury's decision not to indict Pantaleo comes soon after a grand jury in Ferguson, Missouri declined to indict a white police officer who shot and killed an unarmed black teenager during a confrontation.

Here's how New York newspapers reacted to the grand jury's decision on Pantaleo:

Daily News front page

New York Post front page

Metro NY front page

NYT front page

WSJ front page

SEE ALSO: Protests Erupt In NYC After A Grand Jury Didn't Indict Cop Involved In Chokehold Death

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A UK Biscuit Company Has Made Such A Cute Ad With Baby Animals You Won't Even Care About The Biscuits

A UK Biscuit Company Has Made Such A Cute Ad With Baby Animals You Won't Even Care About The Biscuits

UK biscuit brand McVitie’s has created a so-cute-you-will-probably-audibly-squeal commercial for its Victoria selection box, which is extremely popular in British households over the Christmas period.

The ad, created by Grey London, opens with a tired-looking family relaxing in front of the TV on Christmas. The action turns up a notch when the dad opens up the box of biscuits and a menagerie of ridiculously cute fluffy animals start crawling out.

Puppies, kittens, a rabbit, hedgehog, duckling, piglet, reindeer and even a narwhal fill the screen and join in a squeaky rendition of the 1980s Yazoo hit “Only You.” It sounds over the top, and it is, but it’s difficult not to be drawn in.

Just look at this piglet in his oversized Santa hat:

piglet_300x300

An Alaskan Malamute puppy!

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We want one!

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Here's the full ad:

McVitie’s has form in this area. The brand first introduced its array of cute animals to TV screens in February this year as part of its "Sweeet" campaign, with ads depicting kittens and puppies emerging from packs of Digestive biscuits.

But this latest ad has notched the cuteness bar up even higher.

SEE ALSO: Yes, John Lewis' Christmas Penguin Love Ad Is Its Best Yet — Here's Why

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What Are Traders Chatting About Right Now? Mario Draghi... (DIA, SPY, SPX, QQQ)

What Are Traders Chatting About Right Now? Mario Draghi... (DIA, SPY, SPX, QQQ)

Draghi shrug

JonesTrading's Dave Lutz has what traders are buzzing about right now:

Good Morning!   US Futures are up slightly as the BoE stays unchanged (expected) – The main attraction of the morning belongs to Draghi (ECB Announcement at 7:45/Presser 8:30) – and Europe is thinking QE as their markets rally 60bp (near 6Y highs) in light volume.  Consumer stocks are your main winners, while EU industrials and Fins are lagging.   We had headlines from Putin defending the Ruble, but that did little to halt it’s slide, but the MICEX remains in the green.  Over in Asia, China leaps 4%, nearing 4Y highs in record volumes as 17 Securities firms closed limit up – all dovish hopes.  Shanghai has now rallied 18% since the surprise rate cut 2weeks ago - $/Y hit 119.97 last night, helping Nikkei jump to a 7Y peak as Japanese polls show a landslide victory coming for Abe’s LDP party, and Aussie popped 1% as retail sales came in better and the Miners had a strong day.  Consumer stocks globally are outperforming as the price of Gasoline collapses.

The US 10YY is up small, but watch German Bunds under a little pressure into the ECB – The Euro is flat, but hovering around 2Y lows, but the DXY is higher with gains coming against Yen.   With the higher $, commodities have a headwind, and we are watching Gold retrace back to $1200/oz, but dovish China hopes have Copper adding nearly 1% and Ore stabilizing (VALE comments helping).   All eyes on the Oil patch, where headlines saying Saudi cuts selling prices to US and Asia and Iraq adding 300k bpd to the global supply just hit WTI into the red after being up 1%+ overnight.   Natty gas remains under pressure into Inventory data as warmer weather hits the USA.   Scheduled Catalysts include Challenger Job Cuts at 7:30, The ECB rate Decision at 7:45 followed by the Draghi presser at 8:30.  Also at 8:30, we get weekly Jobless Claims data and Fed's Mester speaks.  At 10:30 we get Natty gas Inventory data (Rig count has been dropping), at Noon we get ICSC Chain Store Sales Trends – finally at 12:30 Fed's Brainard Speaks on Financial Stability

SEE ALSO: 10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

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It Is Extremely Painful Waiting For Bubbles To Burst

It Is Extremely Painful Waiting For Bubbles To Burst

bubble

As the long term shareholders of Comstock Capital Value Fund are aware, we warned about the dot com bubble during the late 1990s, and the housing bubble of 2004 to 2008.  We admit to being very early in both bubble predictions.  Presently, we strongly believe that we are in the process of building yet another bubble.  It may well be called “The Central Bank Bubble”. 

It was very painful for Comstock to warn about these bubbles so early, but we must call the markets as we see them.  Recall that Alan Greenspan recognized the dot com bubble as early as December 1996 when he warned investors about “irrational exuberance”.  The warning roiled the stock markets both here and abroad before reaching a trough in early 1997, but the bubble resumed and continued for the next 3 years.  In fact, the NASDAQ Index doubled from 1998 to early 2000.  Dr. Greenspan subsequently reversed his feelings of “irrational exuberance” and instead proclaimed “no one is able to recognize a bubble until it bursts”.

The reason we bring up these two bubbles is because we warned our investors about them years in advance of their bursting.  We now have been warning our investors about the Central Bank (CB) bubble for the past 3 years.  While we did go neutral on the market in 2009, it was after the market rose by about 50% that we began shorting stocks again.  We will continue warning our investors about the CB bubble until it bursts no matter how painful it is during the last stages of the bubble.  We fully expect another crisis to come down on stock investors for the third time in the past 14 years.

Most investors were pleased with the announcement of another 200,000+ employment report, and a 5.8% unemployment rate for October.  The 200,000 barrier was reached for the 9th time in a row.  However, please consider what the Federal Reserve did to get the employment number over the 200,000 barrier.  Consider that in 2008 the Fed’s started with QE 1; in 2010 came QE 2, and in 2012 came QE 3, or some would call it QE to infinity.  QE 2 and QE 3 were separated by “Operation Twist” (the purchase of long Treasury bonds while selling short term Treasury bills).  The Fed’s balance sheet ran up from $800 bn in 2008 to close to $4.4 tn presently.    

It is a statistically significant fact that with this entire monetary stimulus, along with $800 bn of fiscal stimulus, this economic recovery is less than half as strong as the average recovery from recessions over the past 60 years.  Each average GDP recovery since 1983 has been progressively weaker; with the last 3 being 3.6 % following the 1991 recession, 2.8% following the 2002 recession, and 2.2% following the 2008 recession.  This decline in recession recoveries was directly attributable to the continuous build-up of debt.  All this in the face of potential insolvencies in Medicare, Social Security, and the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation’s high probability of going under within 15 years.   It stands to reason that an economy that is weak in the face of unprecedented easy money and zero interest rates will be even weaker when the Fed unwinds its balance sheet.

Please also consider that the other major central banks in the world are attempting to stimulate their economies in much the same manner as the Fed in the face of extremely large debt loads.  While US Debt to GDP stands at 330%, the EU and Japan stand at over 460% and over 655% respectively.  It is also significant that these large debt loads are also present in the emerging economies.  We therefore, continue to believe that until the large debt overhang in the world economies is substantially reduced that growth will be limited or potentially negative.

It is the facts stated above, combined with extremely expensive stock market valuations across all major markets of the world that compels us to warn our investors about the potential for a third bubble busting in about 14 years.

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Conservative MP Mark Pritchard Has Been Arrested Following Rape Allegations

Conservative MP Mark Pritchard Has Been Arrested Following Rape Allegations

Mark Pritchard, Conservative Member of Parliament for The Wrekin, was arrested on Tuesday following allegations of rape, Sky News reports.

The arrest was announced in Parliament's Votes and Proceedings this morning:

http___www_publications_parliament_uk_pa_cm201415_cmvote_141203v01_pdf

Mark_Pritchard_Photo

Pritchard voluntarily turned himself over to police, a statement from the Metropolitan Police obtained by SkyNews said.

"We can confirm that a 48-year-old man voluntarily attended a north London police station on Tuesday, 2 December where he was arrested, following an allegation of rape in central London," the statement said.

Pritchard has since been released on bail.

This is a developing story. Click here to refresh.

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The Next James Bond Movie Will Be Called 'Spectre' — Here's The Full Cast

The Next James Bond Movie Will Be Called 'Spectre' — Here's The Full Cast

Daniel Craig gun James BondThe cast and name of the next Bond movie was announced Thursday morning by director Sam Mendes at an event in London at Pinewood Studios.

Bond 24 will called "Spectre" and will be released in theaters Nov. 6, 2015.

Daniel Craig will return as James Bond, Ralph Fiennes as M., and Rory Kinnear will reprise his role as Tanner. Naomie Harris will also be back as Moneypenny.

Here are the new members of the cast:

Andrew Scott ("Sherlock") will play Denbigh.

Christoph Waltz will star as Oberhauser

David Bautista ("Guardians of the Galaxy") will play Mr. Hinx.

Monica Bellucci will play Lucia Sciarra.

Léa Seydoux will star as Madeleine Swann. 

The new car in the film will be the Astin Martin DB10.

astin martin bond 24astin martin db10

The movie will film over the next seven months in locations including London, Rome, Mexican City, Moracco, and Austria. 

Here's the first teaser poster for the movie.

spectre poster

SEE ALSO: Theives have stolen $1 million worth of James Bond Range Rovers

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