Elon Musk Is Not Alone In His Belief That Robots Will Eventually Want To Kill Us All | ||
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For months, billionaire tech entrepreneur Elon Musk has been warning the world that developments in artificial intelligence could cause robots to become hostile to humans. It all started in June when Musk explained why he invested in artificial intelligence company DeepMind. He said that he likes to "keep an eye on what's going on with artificial intelligence" because he believes there could be a "dangerous outcome" there. "There have been movies about this, you know, like Terminator," Musk said. But Musk's warnings didn't end there. He's gone on to suggest that robots could delete humans like spam, and even said in a since-deleted comment that killer robots could arrive within five years. But is Musk right about the threat of AI? We asked Louis Del Monte — who has written about AI and is a former employee of IBM and Honeywell's microelectronics units — whether robots really will kill us all. "Musk is correct," Del Monte said, "killer robots are already a reality and will proliferate over the next five or ten years." Del Monte explained that artificial intelligence is developing at a rapid pace, and that could pose a threat to humanity if it comes to believe that humans are simply "junk code" that gets in the way: "The power of computers doubles about every 18 months. If you use today as a starting point, we will have computers equivalent to human brains by approximately 2025. In addition, computers in 2025 will have the ability to learn from experience and improve their performance, similar to how humans learn from experience and improve their performance. The difference is that computers in 2025 will have most relevant facts in their memory banks. For example, they would be able to download everything that is in Wikipedia. If they are able to connect to the Internet, then they would be able to learn from other computers. Sharing enormous banks of knowledge could be done in micro-seconds, versus years for humans. The end result is that the average computer in 2025 would be typically smarter that the average human and able to learn new information at astonishing rates." While it's certainly unsettling to think that machines could learn information quicker than us, that's not the real danger. Instead, we're rapidly approaching an event know as the Singularity: "[There will be] a point in time when intelligent machines exceed the cognitive intelligence of all humans combined, [and that] will occur between 2040-2045. This projection is based on extrapolating Moore’s law, as well as reading the opinions of my colleagues in AI research. Respected futurists like Ray Kurzweil and James Martin both project the singularity to occur around 2045."
It looks like Musk's concerns about AI are echoed by other futurists and experts. But his prediction of a dangerous event occurring in five to ten years seems dramatically different from the widely accepted date of 2045. Could Musk's involvement with Google-owned artificial intelligence company DeepMind mean that he knows something we don't? "Yes, Musk must be aware of the current capabilities and is able to extrapolate likely scenarios. It is entirely possible DeepMind is a step ahead of what is published in the public domain." Musk has warned repeatedly that advancement in artificial intelligence could lead to robots turning on humans and killing us. We asked Del Monte what the scenario might actually look like: "In the latter half of the 21st century, artificially intelligent machines will likely be at the heart of all technologically advanced societies. They will control factories, manufacture goods, manufacture foods and essentially have replaced organic humans in every work endeavour." "The scenario of human extinction will go something like this: First, artificially intelligent machines will appear as humanity’s greatest invention. AI will provide cures for diseases and numerous medical breakthroughs, an abundance of products, end world hunger, AI brain implants that allow organic humans to become geniuses and the ability to upload human consciousness to an AI machine. Uploaded humans and humans with AI brain implants will more closely identify with the AI machines than with organic humans. AI machines and SAH (strong artificially intelligent human) cyborgs will use ingenious subterfuge to get as many organic humans as possible to have brain implants or to become uploaded humans." "In the latter part of the 21st century, I estimate organic humans will be a minority and an endangered species. However, they will still be viewed as a threat by SAH cyborgs and AI machines. One scenario is that AI machines could release a nanobot virus that attacks organic humans and results in their total extinction. There are numerous other scenarios which I am developing for my new book. The outcome is the same, regardless of the scenario, namely, the extinction of organic humans. In the first quarter of the 22nd century, I project that the AI machines will view uploaded humans as junk code that just wastes energy and computing power." Join the conversation about this story »  | ||
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"The real danger surfaces when we attempt to answer this simple question: How will these highly intelligent machines view humanity? If you look at our history, you would conclude that we are an unstable species. We engage in wars. We release computer viruses. We have enough nuclear weapons to wipe out the Earth twice over. I judge that these highly intelligent machines will view humanity as a potential threat. If, for example, a nuclear war occurs, it will have the potential to wipe out these highly intelligent machines." China Firm Signs $12 Billion Deal To Build A Railway Along Nigeria's Coast | ||
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Beijing (AFP) - A state-owned Chinese company has signed a $12 billion agreement to build a railway along Nigeria's coast that it billed as China's single largest overseas contract, state media said Thursday. China Railway Construction Corp. Ltd. (CRCC) signed the official construction contract with the Nigerian government on Wednesday in Abuja, the Xinhua news agency said. The Nigerian railway will stretch for 1,402 kilometres (871 miles) along the coast, linking Lagos, the financial capital of Africa's largest economy and leading oil producer, and Calabar in the east, according to the report. The $11.97 billion deal marks China's largest single overseas contract project so far, it said, citing CRCC. The news came two weeks after Mexico cancelled a $3.75 billion bullet train deal only days after it was signed with a Chinese-led consortium headed by CRCC -- the sole bidder -- reportedly due to concerns about transparency. CRCC chairman Meng Fengchao said the Nigeria project will adopt Chinese technological standards and lead to $4 billion-worth of Chinese exports of construction machinery, trains, steel products and other equipment, Xinhua said. It will create up to 200,000 local jobs during the construction and a further 30,000 positions once the line is operational, he said. "It is a mutually beneficial project," Meng was quoted by Xinhua as saying. Trains will travel at a maximum speed of 120 kilometres per hour on the link, the report added. China has dramatically stepped up its presence on the African continent in recent decades as it seeks more resources and new markets for its economy. Trade between China and Nigeria totalled $13.6 billion last year. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang promised more investment and more Chinese technical expertise during a visit earlier this year.
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The 10 Things You Need To Know In Advertising Today | ||
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It's a chilly morning in New York and London. Warm up with these advertising stories. 1. Apple is planning to turn around iAd by venturing into programmatic for the first time. Apple's mobile advertising unit is partnering with automated advertising company Rubicon Project. 2. Here's how fashion retailer C.Wonder has become one of the top lifestyle brands. Morgan Stanley recently named the brand one of the top accessories companies, alongside industry heavyweights Michael Kors, Coach, Tory Burch, and Vera Bradley. Fans of C.Wonder love its preppy aesthetic and bright colors. Celebrities like Jennifer Lopezhave also been spotted wearing the gear. 3. Footlocker has released a new commercial starring basketball players Derrick Rose and Tim Duncan. The ad amusingly plays on Duncan's "boring" persona. 4. Mozilla's Firefox browser has dumped Google search for Yahoo. The new 5-year contract means Yahoo will become the default search engine for US users of the world's third most popular web browser. 5. Uber's latest PR disaster, in which its SVP for business Emil Michael outlined a plan to dig dirt on journalists, is actually having an impact on its brand, Digiday reports. Some journalists had questioned whether it was only the media that cared about the flap, but data from App Annie Intelligence shows Uber's download rank plummeted from 24 to 41 since Nov. 15 and a WikiHow article on how to cancel an Uber account has experienced more than a "10,000%" increase in visits versus March. 6. Nielsen is to begin measuring Netflix viewing, the Wall Street Journal reports. The effort is designed to help content owners gauge the impact of licensing shows and will help prove or disprove assumptions about shifting content viewing habits. 7. The Drum has asked marketing directors from Honda, RSA, and Diageo to divulge the big mistakes agencies make when pitching for new business. Failing to understand a clients' brand, sending blanket emails and not understanding commercial impact are among the most common errors. 8. Yahoo is still feeling acquisitive for ad tech, Re/code reports. MediaMath, RadiumOne, and Turn are among the companies apparently being considered for purchase by CEO Marissa Mayer. 9. Conde Nast has agreed to charge media buying network Group M only if an entire ad is visible to a user, according to AdAge. The agreement is far stricter than the generally-accepted industry standard of 50% of an ad being in view. 10. The New York Times and the Washington Post have both just debuted new native advertising formats, MediaPost reports. The NYT's first ever print native ad placement was an eight-page print wrap, while The Washington Post launched "BrandConnect Perspective," a native ad feature that gives advertisers the chance to publish opinion pieces. Join the conversation about this story »  | ||
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International monitors shot at in east Ukraine: OSCE | ||
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Kiev (AFP) - A convoy of international monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) was shot at by "uniformed personnel" in east Ukraine, the organisation said Thursday. The OSCE said that a uniformed man on the back of a flat-bed cargo truck fired two shots in the direction of their vehicles as they were driving on Wednesday afternoon near the government-held town of Mariinka, some 15 kilometres west of the rebel stronghold of Donetsk. "The bullets struck about two metres from the second OSCE vehicle," the statement said. "Staff travelling in this vehicle heard sharp sounds originating from the road or bullet fragments impacting on their car," the statement said, adding that the convoy then immediately left the area. The OSCE has teams on the ground in east Ukraine monitoring a nominal ceasefire between government forces and Kremlin-backed rebels that has stopped fighting along much of the frontline but failed to halt bombardments at strategic flashpoints. Last week, Russia lashed out at the OSCE for alleged bias after monitors reported seeing convoys of unmarked convoys of military hardware heading through rebel-territory to the frontline. "We get the impression that its efforts are directed at helping and supporting only one side in the conflict, the official authorities in Kiev," the Russian foreign ministry said. "Such policies from the mission's leadership undermine trust in its work."
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At least eight dead in 'historic' US snowstorm | ||
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New York (AFP) - A "historic" storm dumped more than five feet of snow, stranding scores of motorists, canceling flights and killing at least eight people in the northeastern United States, officials said. Areas east and southeast of Buffalo, in northern New York state, could receive a year's accumulation of snow or even more in just two days, Erie County executive Mark Poloncarz told reporters. The deadly burst, named Winter Storm Knife, may see as much as another three feet (one meter) of snowfall on Thursday, which could prompt a federal disaster declaration, Poloncarz said. The Arctic blast will keep temperatures below normal until the weekend, and all 50 states recording below freezing temperatures on Tuesday, the National Weather Service said. A state of emergency and travel bans are in effect across Buffalo's Erie County and authorities ordered people to stay at home to allow crews to clear roads, repair power lines and provide emergency assistance to the most vulnerable.
- 'Difficult, paralyzed situation' -
County spokesman Peter Anderson said runways at Buffalo Niagara International Airport were open, but that "a lot of flights" were being canceled because people cannot get to the airport. The National Guard was called in to assist military Humvee vehicles after New York's transportation department worked through the night to rescue stranded motorists and take people to shelters. "This is something that we're not going to be able to solve on our own. Many communities are still in a very difficult, in some ways paralyzed situation," Poloncarz said. "From a public health standpoint this has been a killer storm. We've had six deaths in the area, five of which have been preventable," said Erie county health commissioner Gale Burstein. Three of those who died suffered heart attacks while shoveling snow and another person died while using a snowplow. US media reported two other deaths in the states of New Hampshire and Michigan.
- Somewhat an 'extreme event' -
Dave Zaff, a meteorologist from the National Weather Service, said areas east and southeast of Buffalo city received upwards of five feet (1.5 meters) of snow. "That is somewhat of an extreme event," he told AFP. "From a forecast standpoint, it will be historic. "The impact alone when you have hundreds of thousands of people stranded, roads closed everywhere, you start to get fatalities," he said. "It becomes a very memorable event that people will never forget." A university women's basketball team was eventually rescued after spending more than 24 hours trapped in a bus on a highway. And New York-based rock band Interpol was among those trapped in the snowstorm outside Buffalo overnight, forcing them to cancel a concert across the Canadian border in Toronto. "Still trapped yo! Haven't really moved in 30 hours and we've been on the bus for nearly 40 hours. Nutso. Never seen anything like it," the band said on Twitter. One young woman in Buffalo tweeting from @SpecialCassie said her father had finally made it home after spending nearly 40 hours stuck in a car on the throughway. "Snow to his shoulders, had to climb a tree to get out," she wrote. Join the conversation about this story »  | ||
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Germany Just Dragged Europe's Growth To A 16 Month Low | ||
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The Eurozone's composite PMI just came in at 51.4, the lowest in 16 months. That's after some unexpectedly poor numbers for Germany. The major business survey is pointing to a significant slowdown in Europe. Analysts had expected the PMI (purchasing managers index) figure to come in at 52.3 overall, an improvement from October's 52.1. Output in the eurozone is falling back towards the neutral 50 mark: anything below that level signals a contraction, and recession. Here's how it looks against European growth.
The German figures weren't the only poor ones out this morning. France's PMI numbers were poor again, coming in at just 48.4. Just as the PMI numbers came out, the Italian government confirmed a 1.5% drop in industrial orders between August and September. Chris Williamson, Markit's chief economist, weighed in on what the figures mean for Europe's politicians and central bankers: Policymakers will no doubt be disappointed that recent announcements and stimulus measures are showing no signs of reviving growth. The deteriorating trend in the surveys will add to pressure for the European Central Bank to do more to boost the economy without waiting to gauge the effectiveness of previously-announced initiatives. Join the conversation about this story »  | ||
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JACK MA: This Is Alibaba's Most Dangerous Moment | ||
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Ma was speaking at a conference in China, following the company's IPO, the largest flotation in history. The massive e-commerce firm is debuting its first bonds today, with a massive issue expected to run to about $8 billion (£5.1 billion). Bloomberg has Ma charting how expectations for his firm, which was set up 16 years ago, have changed: “Even two months before the IPO, people didn’t think we would make money,” Ma said in a speech today at the World Internet Conference in Wuzhen, China. “Now the problem is people think we are too good -- we can do anything." So far, Alibaba's performance has managed to buck the trend of China's economic slowdown and maintain rapid growth. Join the conversation about this story »  | ||
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After being repeatedly underestimated, people now think Alibaba is capable of doing anything. That's why Alibaba says the company is in its " What You Need To Know In Markets This Morning | ||
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Good morning! Here are the 10 major stories you need to hear about before markets open in London and Paris. The White House Will Back Sanctions Against Venezuela. The Obama administration would like to work with the U.S. Congress to impose sanctions on Venezuela in response to a crackdown on anti-government protests. Fiat Expects New Crossover To Outsell 500 Microcar In The US. Fiat Chrysler expects its yet-to-be launched Fiat 500X crossover sport utility vehicle to be even more popular in North America than its 500 microcar, senior executives said on Wednesday. EBay Is Making A New Bet On Retail. EBay is retooling its local delivery program and extending more logistics options to smaller merchants that make up the bulk of the e-commerce giant's sprawling base of marketplace sellers, an executive said on Wednesday. Alibaba Will Sell Its First Bonds Today. The e-commerce giant will sell its first-ever bond on Thursday, a jumbo trade expected to be around $8 billion (£5.1 billion) in size that comes just two months after the company's record IPO. Europe's Manufacturing PMIs are Coming. France's manufacturing PMI is out at 8 a.m. GMT, followed by the overall Eurozone factory PMI at 9 a.m. GMT. The business surveys should give a first idea of how European economies are holding up in November. Analysts are expecting a very modest improvement from October, leaving the index in very weak growth territory. BMW's Margins In China Are Narrowing. "Everything is normalising in China - the market growth, the volume growth, the margin growth," said Karsten Engel, BMW's China chief executive. China's Manufacturers Signalled No Growth This Month. Manufacturing activity in China stagnated in November, British banking giant HSBC said Thursday, warning of "significant" pressures on the world's second-largest economy as its key purchasing managers' index (PMI) hit a six-month low. Asian Markets Are Pretty Flat. The Nikkei closed up just 0.07% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is currently trading up just 0.04%. UKIP Are Expected To Win Their Second Seat In Parliament. Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives risk losing a second British parliamentary seat to the anti-EU UKIP party on Thursday, foreshadowing a possible political upheaval in next year's national election. The US Senate Blasted Banks Over Their Commodities Trading. Goldman Sachs will rebut on Thursday allegations made by a powerful Senate committee report that condemned Wall Street banks for exploiting physical commodity markets to manipulate prices and gain unfair trading advantages. Join the conversation about this story »  | ||
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